The future course for Aam Aadmi Party!

After the overwhelming success the big question still looms, can Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) make it to the big scene (read : the Loksabha elections 2019)? The party has definitely seen completely extreme results in a span of 6-7 months. This is cricket equivalent of a team chasing 350 plus score in one match and then getting bundled out in 50 runs in the other match. If not for Punjab, the AAPs national campaign looked a complete disaster. But it did manage to bounce back in a fashion no one even dreamt of. The phenomenal victory in Delhi has given a shot in the arm of AAP volunteers and party workers. Can they use the momentum is the big question?

Does AAP match up to the scale of National Parties?

  If one has too see on an organization level, AAP still have a long way to go. If we compare the two national parties in India, the Indian National Congress and the BJP, one can understand the scale and duration required for a party to get on the national scene. The Congress has its roots in the Pre Independence era and inherited a lot from the Independence Movement. As a result it had no shortage of leaders and hordes of grass root level party workers. Even though after receiving many set backs the party has managed to survive, not just that but bounce back to power time and again. This national elections has brought to the brinks of very existence. And it is now interesting to see how they manage to spring board to the top. it is absolutely no secret that Congress is facing its worst ever crisis period.

   The BJP on the other hand is known as a political wing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS which also has its roots in pre Independence era is a right wing organisation based on the concept of Hindu nationalisim. The evolution of present day BJP dates way back from Bhartiya Jan Sangh (BJS), which was initially the political wing RSS formed in 1951 under the leadership of Shyama Prasad Mookherjee. The BJS even after 25 years of existence could not make any impact on the national scene. Eventually in the Emergency era in 1977, the BJS merged with several other parties including a few former Congress leader formed an united party known as Janta Party to take on Indira Gandhi and Congress. The Janta Party got elected to power, riding a strong anti-Emergency wave. This, however was not to last long enough and the Congress thumped back to power in 1980 and Indira Gandhi was elected with a resounding majority. The Janta Party was thus dissolved and BJP was formed from the members of erstwhile Jan Sangh. The BJP also tasted limited success in the early years. Finally it took them the "Ram Janmbhoomi movement" to become single largest party in 1996. Since then BJP has been winning important state elections and growing in stature. To sum it up, the BJP took a long 40 plus years to come into national prominence.
 So getting back to the original question Can AAP make it to the big scene? I believe just like the BJP AAP needs to focus themselves on winning or atleast getting a foot hold in state elections. They should follow a bottom-up approach, that is working and strengthening the party at the grass root level. Both the Congress and the BJP derive its strength from panchayat to zilla parishad to assembly to parliament level party workers. Delhi being a city state AAP may not have yet recognized the power of this structure. The current strength of AAP is largely the urban pockets. AAP does not have huge following in the rural areas. In my last blog, i had mentioned that as of now AAP has taken the place of regional party in Delhi. other regional parties like the SP, BSP, DMK, AIDMK, TDP, TMC, JD (U), NCP etc have all tried either individually or by forming a front to get into National  relevance, albeit with a limited success. It might be because either their leaders did not have a pan india image or also because the Party could not provide any appealing National Agenda. The same cannot be said about Mr Arvind Kejriwal. The backdrop of India Against Corruption movement has definitely given him both a pan India image as well as an important agenda. But it is certainly not a one mans job. There is one big difference though, the BJP had the experienced leaders like Atal Bihari, LK Advani, M M Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh as well the young stalwarts in Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and many others to boost for. Currently the AAP does lack depth in terms of leadership. This is an important issue they will have address.

The best way to develop this is by participating in state as well as some important elections. Initially they will have to selective in contesting state elections. To start with they should play to their strengths by contesting small states with good number of urbanized areas. The idea is to be a key player by either winning the election or at least being the main opposition party. A good opposition party is can surely form a strong base for next election. The other important elections that happen in a state are Rajyasabha (RS) elections. Considering the current AAP strength in delhi, it can elect 3 members to Rajysabha. There is a certain number game on how every state elects a RS member. While fighting for elections AAP should also consider this factor back of their mind. Many important bills are tabled in RS for approval. The AAP can make good use of this opportunity to explain their take on issues of public relevance. The entry into RS can also help them make key allies. They may not currently be open to the idea of having any allies but the current scenario of Indian Politics certainly does not make a case for single party.

Other than this they will have to create organization structure from the block level. The AAP website does mention a multi level structure. Although, have they been able to implement this? Only time can tell. It won't be easy to get party workers across whole of india so soon. They will have to push it persistently for a longer time. A lot effort will have to be put in to get right people in place. So does AAP match up in terms of organization strength to that of national parties right now? the answer is a NO.

Can AAP replace Congress at national level?

There is a sharp depletion of Congress votes in Delhi. That in turn being converting to AAP should be a good sign for AAP. The secular vote bank which was loyal to Congress now seems have to found a suitable replacement in AAP. This vote bank some how doesn't seem to accept the BJP brand of politics. At least in Delhi they have found an alternative to Congress. For this to convert on a larger level and that to with the regional players in tow, would take some heavy lifting. The congress on the other hand still don't seem to be recovering from the disastrous campaign in the Loksabha. They will have to reinvent themselves to an extent of a complete overhaul. Congress now has a bigger fight on hand. They have to fight not just BJP but also AAP as well as some other regional parties. With people deserting the sinking ship the future looks gloom for the Congress.

AAP does have the potential to pose a threat to BJP. They have taken the fight to them and won the first bout. The defeat in Delhi will make BJP rethink their strategy. BJP would be waiting for an opportunity to counter attack. Although the first battle is won by AAP, a long big war still awaits them.

My Analysis of the Delhi Election 2015

Arvind Kejriwal celebrates winning of Aam Aadmi Party with his wife and AAP leaders at Patel Nagar office in New Delhi on Tuesday. (Express Photo by Praveen Khanna)

There have been a number of analysis done on outcome of Delhi election. It has been historic and monumental by any standards of measurement. The success, that Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) got,  surprised even all of their members and political experts alike. There are some points,that, I think need a look in along with the points, which have been already discussed and  may need a different point of view.

Firstly, a number of states in India have seen rise of regional parties. In the book "Transforming India: Challenges to the World's largest democracy", author Bose has described how diversity in India's political landscape has caught up with diversity of its culture over the years. "The regionalisation of India's political landscape has decentralised power and has deepened the country's democracy", says London School of Economics (LSE) professor, Sumantra Bose. These regional parties have been formed either out of mutiny or as a challenge to the present establishment. Many of them have been mighty successful where as some of them have held key to forming power. Delhi was one such state where in a void had been created by existing the Congress and BJP parties. Both of them had enjoyed good stints in power. Interestingly both the parties have failed to make an impact. The reasons for same is obviously different for both of them and needs a different write up for its analysis. The AAP filled in this void comfortably. The interesting point here is, all regional parties across India have a special and an emotional connect with that particular region and with their people. What makes it more interesting is, if the party has a commanding leader in the ranks people seem to be more attracted towards them. That has been the success mantra for most of them. And AAP did have that appeal and a leader people could connect to.

I believe the people of India have come of age when it comes to voting and electing governments. They have a separate agenda in their minds for national and state elections. They are willing to take risk and give a new party (with almost no background of politics) a chance. The only background that AAP had was the Jan Lokpal movement. Although the Jan Lokpal movement got major support from entire nation, essentially it was been operated and garnered majority of support from Delhi people. The huge crowds they drew at Ram Lila Maidan also made way for a direct connect with people of Delhi on the ground level. 

The BJP since coming to power in centre started pushing the Hindutva agenda aggressively. The minorities have traditionally been a Congress vote bank. But with its depleting credibility, the minorities had to look for an decisive alternative. Which they did find in AAP. Even Imam Bukhari had seen it coming and so he was forth coming in announcing support to AAP. The AAP rejecting this support, played their cards well and the communal polarization was avoided.

The other major factor that led to the downfall of BJP was the appointment of Kiran Bedi as CM candidate. After playing it safe with not announcing candidates in Maharashtra and Haryana, it still remains a big question what made BJP to announceMs Bedi as CM candidate. India has historically witnessed the Divide and Rule policy. And this when i say people of India have come of age and have now started to read "between the lines". The  appointment of Kiran Bedi did boomerang on the BJP. The major reason for this being the loyal foot soldiers, they may be of any party, do not always like decisions being pushed down. When they have a point to prove they certainly do and they did this time around. I hope the BJP leadership get this message.

The instability and Presidents rule in Delhi definitely had a effect on minds of people in delhi. So it was clear once the election were announced that there won't be a hung state scenario. AAP having identified this, took the lead in election campaign. having tasted success in the first bid they had to be more clinical this time around. They had to gauge and measure up candidates to take the might of Shah-Modi duo. Which they did, they managed the candidates in respects of demographic, caste relevancy perfectly. 

And finally no victory is possible without team work. They really made good use of social media with IITians at hand. Their street campaigns were innovative and eye catching. All in all they hit the right notes. The AAP volunteers who came from across India did a splendid job. It was as if they had to prove a point. If that attitude is developed half the battle is won already. As mentioned in the start, this has certainly been  one of its kind election seen in longest time.

P.S :- this is my first attempt to do a blog. please leave your comments to help me improve. I did want to keep it simple so no numbers and figure and historical data given. Not that i am good at that. :)