My Analysis of the Delhi Election 2015

Arvind Kejriwal celebrates winning of Aam Aadmi Party with his wife and AAP leaders at Patel Nagar office in New Delhi on Tuesday. (Express Photo by Praveen Khanna)

There have been a number of analysis done on outcome of Delhi election. It has been historic and monumental by any standards of measurement. The success, that Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) got,  surprised even all of their members and political experts alike. There are some points,that, I think need a look in along with the points, which have been already discussed and  may need a different point of view.

Firstly, a number of states in India have seen rise of regional parties. In the book "Transforming India: Challenges to the World's largest democracy", author Bose has described how diversity in India's political landscape has caught up with diversity of its culture over the years. "The regionalisation of India's political landscape has decentralised power and has deepened the country's democracy", says London School of Economics (LSE) professor, Sumantra Bose. These regional parties have been formed either out of mutiny or as a challenge to the present establishment. Many of them have been mighty successful where as some of them have held key to forming power. Delhi was one such state where in a void had been created by existing the Congress and BJP parties. Both of them had enjoyed good stints in power. Interestingly both the parties have failed to make an impact. The reasons for same is obviously different for both of them and needs a different write up for its analysis. The AAP filled in this void comfortably. The interesting point here is, all regional parties across India have a special and an emotional connect with that particular region and with their people. What makes it more interesting is, if the party has a commanding leader in the ranks people seem to be more attracted towards them. That has been the success mantra for most of them. And AAP did have that appeal and a leader people could connect to.

I believe the people of India have come of age when it comes to voting and electing governments. They have a separate agenda in their minds for national and state elections. They are willing to take risk and give a new party (with almost no background of politics) a chance. The only background that AAP had was the Jan Lokpal movement. Although the Jan Lokpal movement got major support from entire nation, essentially it was been operated and garnered majority of support from Delhi people. The huge crowds they drew at Ram Lila Maidan also made way for a direct connect with people of Delhi on the ground level. 

The BJP since coming to power in centre started pushing the Hindutva agenda aggressively. The minorities have traditionally been a Congress vote bank. But with its depleting credibility, the minorities had to look for an decisive alternative. Which they did find in AAP. Even Imam Bukhari had seen it coming and so he was forth coming in announcing support to AAP. The AAP rejecting this support, played their cards well and the communal polarization was avoided.

The other major factor that led to the downfall of BJP was the appointment of Kiran Bedi as CM candidate. After playing it safe with not announcing candidates in Maharashtra and Haryana, it still remains a big question what made BJP to announceMs Bedi as CM candidate. India has historically witnessed the Divide and Rule policy. And this when i say people of India have come of age and have now started to read "between the lines". The  appointment of Kiran Bedi did boomerang on the BJP. The major reason for this being the loyal foot soldiers, they may be of any party, do not always like decisions being pushed down. When they have a point to prove they certainly do and they did this time around. I hope the BJP leadership get this message.

The instability and Presidents rule in Delhi definitely had a effect on minds of people in delhi. So it was clear once the election were announced that there won't be a hung state scenario. AAP having identified this, took the lead in election campaign. having tasted success in the first bid they had to be more clinical this time around. They had to gauge and measure up candidates to take the might of Shah-Modi duo. Which they did, they managed the candidates in respects of demographic, caste relevancy perfectly. 

And finally no victory is possible without team work. They really made good use of social media with IITians at hand. Their street campaigns were innovative and eye catching. All in all they hit the right notes. The AAP volunteers who came from across India did a splendid job. It was as if they had to prove a point. If that attitude is developed half the battle is won already. As mentioned in the start, this has certainly been  one of its kind election seen in longest time.

P.S :- this is my first attempt to do a blog. please leave your comments to help me improve. I did want to keep it simple so no numbers and figure and historical data given. Not that i am good at that. :)