After the overwhelming success the big question still looms, can Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) make it to the big scene (read : the Loksabha elections 2019)? The party has definitely seen completely extreme results in a span of 6-7 months. This is cricket equivalent of a team chasing 350 plus score in one match and then getting bundled out in 50 runs in the other match. If not for Punjab, the AAPs national campaign looked a complete disaster. But it did manage to bounce back in a fashion no one even dreamt of. The phenomenal victory in Delhi has given a shot in the arm of AAP volunteers and party workers. Can they use the momentum is the big question?
The BJP on the other hand is known as a political wing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS which also has its roots in pre Independence era is a right wing organisation based on the concept of Hindu nationalisim. The evolution of present day BJP dates way back from Bhartiya Jan Sangh (BJS), which was initially the political wing RSS formed in 1951 under the leadership of Shyama Prasad Mookherjee. The BJS even after 25 years of existence could not make any impact on the national scene. Eventually in the Emergency era in 1977, the BJS merged with several other parties including a few former Congress leader formed an united party known as Janta Party to take on Indira Gandhi and Congress. The Janta Party got elected to power, riding a strong anti-Emergency wave. This, however was not to last long enough and the Congress thumped back to power in 1980 and Indira Gandhi was elected with a resounding majority. The Janta Party was thus dissolved and BJP was formed from the members of erstwhile Jan Sangh. The BJP also tasted limited success in the early years. Finally it took them the "Ram Janmbhoomi movement" to become single largest party in 1996. Since then BJP has been winning important state elections and growing in stature. To sum it up, the BJP took a long 40 plus years to come into national prominence.
So getting back to the original question Can AAP make it to the big scene? I believe just like the BJP AAP needs to focus themselves on winning or atleast getting a foot hold in state elections. They should follow a bottom-up approach, that is working and strengthening the party at the grass root level. Both the Congress and the BJP derive its strength from panchayat to zilla parishad to assembly to parliament level party workers. Delhi being a city state AAP may not have yet recognized the power of this structure. The current strength of AAP is largely the urban pockets. AAP does not have huge following in the rural areas. In my last blog, i had mentioned that as of now AAP has taken the place of regional party in Delhi. other regional parties like the SP, BSP, DMK, AIDMK, TDP, TMC, JD (U), NCP etc have all tried either individually or by forming a front to get into National relevance, albeit with a limited success. It might be because either their leaders did not have a pan india image or also because the Party could not provide any appealing National Agenda. The same cannot be said about Mr Arvind Kejriwal. The backdrop of India Against Corruption movement has definitely given him both a pan India image as well as an important agenda. But it is certainly not a one mans job. There is one big difference though, the BJP had the experienced leaders like Atal Bihari, LK Advani, M M Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh as well the young stalwarts in Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and many others to boost for. Currently the AAP does lack depth in terms of leadership. This is an important issue they will have address.
The best way to develop this is by participating in state as well as some important elections. Initially they will have to selective in contesting state elections. To start with they should play to their strengths by contesting small states with good number of urbanized areas. The idea is to be a key player by either winning the election or at least being the main opposition party. A good opposition party is can surely form a strong base for next election. The other important elections that happen in a state are Rajyasabha (RS) elections. Considering the current AAP strength in delhi, it can elect 3 members to Rajysabha. There is a certain number game on how every state elects a RS member. While fighting for elections AAP should also consider this factor back of their mind. Many important bills are tabled in RS for approval. The AAP can make good use of this opportunity to explain their take on issues of public relevance. The entry into RS can also help them make key allies. They may not currently be open to the idea of having any allies but the current scenario of Indian Politics certainly does not make a case for single party.
Other than this they will have to create organization structure from the block level. The AAP website does mention a multi level structure. Although, have they been able to implement this? Only time can tell. It won't be easy to get party workers across whole of india so soon. They will have to push it persistently for a longer time. A lot effort will have to be put in to get right people in place. So does AAP match up in terms of organization strength to that of national parties right now? the answer is a NO.
There is a sharp depletion of Congress votes in Delhi. That in turn being converting to AAP should be a good sign for AAP. The secular vote bank which was loyal to Congress now seems have to found a suitable replacement in AAP. This vote bank some how doesn't seem to accept the BJP brand of politics. At least in Delhi they have found an alternative to Congress. For this to convert on a larger level and that to with the regional players in tow, would take some heavy lifting. The congress on the other hand still don't seem to be recovering from the disastrous campaign in the Loksabha. They will have to reinvent themselves to an extent of a complete overhaul. Congress now has a bigger fight on hand. They have to fight not just BJP but also AAP as well as some other regional parties. With people deserting the sinking ship the future looks gloom for the Congress.
AAP does have the potential to pose a threat to BJP. They have taken the fight to them and won the first bout. The defeat in Delhi will make BJP rethink their strategy. BJP would be waiting for an opportunity to counter attack. Although the first battle is won by AAP, a long big war still awaits them.
Does AAP match up to the scale of National Parties?
If one has too see on an organization level, AAP still have a long way to go. If we compare the two national parties in India, the Indian National Congress and the BJP, one can understand the scale and duration required for a party to get on the national scene. The Congress has its roots in the Pre Independence era and inherited a lot from the Independence Movement. As a result it had no shortage of leaders and hordes of grass root level party workers. Even though after receiving many set backs the party has managed to survive, not just that but bounce back to power time and again. This national elections has brought to the brinks of very existence. And it is now interesting to see how they manage to spring board to the top. it is absolutely no secret that Congress is facing its worst ever crisis period.The BJP on the other hand is known as a political wing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS which also has its roots in pre Independence era is a right wing organisation based on the concept of Hindu nationalisim. The evolution of present day BJP dates way back from Bhartiya Jan Sangh (BJS), which was initially the political wing RSS formed in 1951 under the leadership of Shyama Prasad Mookherjee. The BJS even after 25 years of existence could not make any impact on the national scene. Eventually in the Emergency era in 1977, the BJS merged with several other parties including a few former Congress leader formed an united party known as Janta Party to take on Indira Gandhi and Congress. The Janta Party got elected to power, riding a strong anti-Emergency wave. This, however was not to last long enough and the Congress thumped back to power in 1980 and Indira Gandhi was elected with a resounding majority. The Janta Party was thus dissolved and BJP was formed from the members of erstwhile Jan Sangh. The BJP also tasted limited success in the early years. Finally it took them the "Ram Janmbhoomi movement" to become single largest party in 1996. Since then BJP has been winning important state elections and growing in stature. To sum it up, the BJP took a long 40 plus years to come into national prominence.
So getting back to the original question Can AAP make it to the big scene? I believe just like the BJP AAP needs to focus themselves on winning or atleast getting a foot hold in state elections. They should follow a bottom-up approach, that is working and strengthening the party at the grass root level. Both the Congress and the BJP derive its strength from panchayat to zilla parishad to assembly to parliament level party workers. Delhi being a city state AAP may not have yet recognized the power of this structure. The current strength of AAP is largely the urban pockets. AAP does not have huge following in the rural areas. In my last blog, i had mentioned that as of now AAP has taken the place of regional party in Delhi. other regional parties like the SP, BSP, DMK, AIDMK, TDP, TMC, JD (U), NCP etc have all tried either individually or by forming a front to get into National relevance, albeit with a limited success. It might be because either their leaders did not have a pan india image or also because the Party could not provide any appealing National Agenda. The same cannot be said about Mr Arvind Kejriwal. The backdrop of India Against Corruption movement has definitely given him both a pan India image as well as an important agenda. But it is certainly not a one mans job. There is one big difference though, the BJP had the experienced leaders like Atal Bihari, LK Advani, M M Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh as well the young stalwarts in Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and many others to boost for. Currently the AAP does lack depth in terms of leadership. This is an important issue they will have address.
The best way to develop this is by participating in state as well as some important elections. Initially they will have to selective in contesting state elections. To start with they should play to their strengths by contesting small states with good number of urbanized areas. The idea is to be a key player by either winning the election or at least being the main opposition party. A good opposition party is can surely form a strong base for next election. The other important elections that happen in a state are Rajyasabha (RS) elections. Considering the current AAP strength in delhi, it can elect 3 members to Rajysabha. There is a certain number game on how every state elects a RS member. While fighting for elections AAP should also consider this factor back of their mind. Many important bills are tabled in RS for approval. The AAP can make good use of this opportunity to explain their take on issues of public relevance. The entry into RS can also help them make key allies. They may not currently be open to the idea of having any allies but the current scenario of Indian Politics certainly does not make a case for single party.
Other than this they will have to create organization structure from the block level. The AAP website does mention a multi level structure. Although, have they been able to implement this? Only time can tell. It won't be easy to get party workers across whole of india so soon. They will have to push it persistently for a longer time. A lot effort will have to be put in to get right people in place. So does AAP match up in terms of organization strength to that of national parties right now? the answer is a NO.
Can AAP replace Congress at national level?
There is a sharp depletion of Congress votes in Delhi. That in turn being converting to AAP should be a good sign for AAP. The secular vote bank which was loyal to Congress now seems have to found a suitable replacement in AAP. This vote bank some how doesn't seem to accept the BJP brand of politics. At least in Delhi they have found an alternative to Congress. For this to convert on a larger level and that to with the regional players in tow, would take some heavy lifting. The congress on the other hand still don't seem to be recovering from the disastrous campaign in the Loksabha. They will have to reinvent themselves to an extent of a complete overhaul. Congress now has a bigger fight on hand. They have to fight not just BJP but also AAP as well as some other regional parties. With people deserting the sinking ship the future looks gloom for the Congress.
AAP does have the potential to pose a threat to BJP. They have taken the fight to them and won the first bout. The defeat in Delhi will make BJP rethink their strategy. BJP would be waiting for an opportunity to counter attack. Although the first battle is won by AAP, a long big war still awaits them.
2 comments:
Excellent writeup.You have mentioned a good point about AAP how they can become stronger by contesting in smaller states and strengthening the party at ground level...
Thanks Himanshu. The congress will also have to do the same it seems like. Let's see how it turns out.
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